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A bit of draft science for you
As you all may know, the NFL draft is one of my Top 5 favorite sporting events of the year. I get more excited for the draft than I do for the BCS Championship Game. It’s a passion. I’ve learned a few things going over past drafts and potential draft picks and there’s something I wanted to share with you guys who watch football.
Successful teams are made from 3 successful drafts. I don’t mean one off successful teams, but dynasties like the Patriots, The Cowboys, The Redskin, The 49ers, and many others were all borne from 3 successful NFL drafts in a row. You can’t look for quick fixes all the time and hope to contend. If you want to see this in action, check out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They’re entering their 3rd year of the process and have built a strong core of players in the past two. It will be fun to see them continue. Same goes for the Lions.
For the exact opposite, watch the Raiders fuck everything up. AGAIN.
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So You Want To Draft…: Cam Newton
Cam Newton is the Tim Tebow of 2011. He was actually in line to take over for Tebow at Florida but, after being caught stealing another student’s laptop, was dismissed from the team and chose to pursue options elsewhere. He played in Junior College for a year and then signed on at Auburn. The rest, as they say, is history.
Newton possesses an elite talent, posting a passer rating of 182 during his National Championship season at Auburn. With 30 TDs and only 7 INTs, and another 20 TDs from rushing the ball, and even a receiving TD this season, it’s hard to deny that Cam Newton is an athlete of the highest caliber. But Newton’s athletics aren’t what’s being questioned.
Newton has been described by multiple scouts as: selfish, immature, phony, not a good teammate, and possessing a sense of entitlement. He was also caught up in controversy surrounding the allegations that his father Cecil sought money in return for Cam’s signing with a school, though no proof ever surfaced that Cam knew of this.
Newton’s other downsides come on the field. He holds the ball too long in the pocket, and then shows a lack of willingness to take a hit so he can follow through on a throw. He’s a supreme scrambler, which is good because he has no urgency in his drop back and will often have to move quickly after his protection breaks down. He also puts too much air under the ball sometimes and overthrows his receivers. He needs to buckle down and learn how to diagnose coverages and progress through reads quickly and correctly, or he will never make it as an NFL quarterback.
Newton will go #1 to the Carolina Panthers.
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So You Want To Draft…:Patrick Peterson
Few cornerbacks were as dominant as Patrick Peterson was this season. LSU is coming off of a dominant 10-2 season and a blowout 41-24 victory in the Cotton Bowl, and Peterson deserves a huge pile of credit for helping the team get there.
Peterson’s season was devoid of many flashy plays (4 INT, only 2 went for distance) but he helped his team out by contributing 42 tackles and 6 passes broken up, establishing himself as a true shutdown corner. He possesses exceptional ability in understanding how a WR is attacking and countering them appropriately. He has strong ball skills and is a great player on special teams, contributing 2 punt returns for TDs and notching 418 total PR yards.
The only downsides with Peterson stem from the fact that some of his skills can be tagged as “Great, not Elite.” He can get caught out of position in zone coverages and plays a little over-aggressive at times, and his closing burst isn’t as fast as it could be. His run support is also lacking in aggression but he’s better than most CBs out there.
Peterson is an easy Top 5 choice for the draft. The Bills and the Cardinals could both snap him up for value alone, but the furthest you’ll see him fall is down to 7 with the San Francisco 49ers.
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So You Want To Draft…: Andy Dalton
Continuing our look ahead to the NFL Draft, we’ll look at one of the more underrated QBs available: Andy Dalton. Dalton led the TCU Horned Frogs to their most successful season in school history, bringing them to the cusp of a BCS National Championship bid. They ended the season ranked #2 after defeating the Big Ten co-champion Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.
There are some doubts about what level of success Dalton could achieve in the NFL, however. His bulk and arm strength aren’t where some teams would like to see them at, but due to the lockout and lack of free agency, this is a good year to be lacking polish.
Dalton has plenty of upside, however. He posted a career high passer rating of 166.5 last season, and a career line of 71 TDs/30 INTs, he also averaged 9 Yards per Pass. Dalton also rushed for 435 yards (5 YPR avg) and 6 TDs on his own. Dalton clearly has the accuracy and mobility necessary to succeed at a high level. He also possesses a good attitude and a strong history of being a capable leader.
Dalton could go to a couple teams, it really all depends on how he is valued. The Bengals and the Seahawks are both viable destinations for Dalton, and he could possibly go in the first round. Look for the Bengals to make a trade down during the first round, a sure sign that they are taking Carson Palmer seriously and getting ready to draft a QB to take over for him.
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So You Want To Draft…: Von MIller
The first thing you should know about drafting Von Miller is this: your favorite team won’t get the chance to. The second thing you should know is that when you play the team that did draft him, you’ll wish your team had a higher draft pick.
Von Miller played OLB for Texas A&M, and did it with a level of success that we haven’t seen in a long time. Just this year alone, MIller recorded 10.5 sacks and another 17.5 TFL. This year. Miller has the kind of raw talent that doesn’t come along all that often. His field vision and reaction time are fantastic, which is what allows him to get in to the opponents backfield so quickly and consistently. His only weakness is that his lower body doesn’t have the kind of strength that would allow him to be a 100% elite OLB. He’s better against the pass than he is against the run, and can sometimes have trouble disengaging big blockers.
If Newton goes before the Bills get a chance to pick, they’ll take Von Miller. Otherwise, Miller will fall a bit and get picked #7 by the 49ers, another team looking to rebuild on defense.
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So You Want To Draft…: Marcell Dareus
Fans of the Denver Broncos should get themselves ready for a lot of seasons of the following: “Marcell Dareus. Alabama.” and then sit back and relax for the next 3 hours as Dareus clogs up running lanes and locks down quarterbacks trying to pass over him. He is an elite talent who was getting in to the backfield for a sack or a tackle for loss almost every game during his last season at Alabama, and he’s NFL ready from the get-go.
John Fox NEEDS a strong DT to anchor the new 4-3 system Denver is looking to implement, and Dareus fits the bill for an every down impact player with almost no personal issues off of the field to speak of. If Carolina goes with QB Cam Newton (more on that later) then this pick will be the easiest one the Broncos have made in years.
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The BCS National Championship Game is only 8 days away
Oregon and Auburn had two of the highest profile teams in the country this season, whether it be for alleged violations by the Tigers or the fast paced no-huddle that almost redefined no-huddle by the Ducks. In just over a week, these two teams will meet to determine which one is the best college football team in the nation. Let’s break down the two teams to see who’s going to walk away with the trophy.
1 AUBURN (13-0)
THE GOOD - This can be summed up in two words: Cam Newton. Or, if you’d prefer, Heisman Winner. Or conference leading offense. OK, that’s three words, but I think I’ve made my point. The Auburn team is a good team, but Cam Newton is out of this world. 28 Passing TDs, 20 Rushing TDs, and 1 RECEIVING TD. The kid literally does everything. I hate to center a discussion around a player, but Cam Newton is doing Tim Tebow better than Tim Tebow did. If Oregon can’t stop Cam Newton, this is going to get out of hand quickly.
THE BAD - Auburn is ranked 54th in Points Against at 24.5. That’s not very good in a field of 120. 24.5 may not sound like a lot of points, considering they’re ranked 6th in Points For at 42.7, but when you’re up against Oregon’s no-huddle attack, you need to be ready to keep as many points off the board as possible, and I have my doubts that Auburn can manage that.
2 OREGON (12-0)
THE GOOD - Chip Kelly is a mastermind. He’s been slowly building up this Oregon team for a couple years, fighting through problem players and bad situations, and has really earned this shot at the BCS National Championship. The team is ranked 1st in Points For at 49.3, which is a disgusting number when you consider that’s an average. 4th overall in Rushing, and only 12th in Points Against, this team looks poised to throw everything at Auburn.
THE BAD - Is Darron Thomas a good quarterback? Yes. But he’s not the most accurate or the quickest, and that could be where Oregon’s problems will originate from. He doesn’t throw too many interceptions, but he does throw a lot of incompletions, and incompletions deflate a no-huddle offense. If Auburn shuts down LaMichael James and forces Thomas to pass more, they will be doing themselves a huge favor.
MY OPINION - The game is going to start off as a shootout, but as it goes on and Oregon gives the defense less and less time to prepare and rest, they’ll slowly build up an insurmountable lead and bring home their first ever BCS National Championship.
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Looks like someone isn’t going 82-0
Whoops. After all of that off-season hype, the three-headed monster that is the Miami Heat made their official debut to a sold out crowd at TD Bank Garden. They tried and they tried and they tried, but they just couldn’t squeak out a victory over the Celtics. Unfortunately for them, some things just aren’t meant to be.
FIVE THINGS THE HEAT DID WRONG
1. The Heat forgot how to play offense. I don’t mean that they didn’t score, the Celtics only won by 8 points. But remember that offense in Cleveland from 05-09? Give to LeBron and…we never moved beyond that. The Heat (and Erik Spoelstra) have 3 of the best players in basketball right now and they’re going to run the LeBronfense? For shame.
2. Chris Bosh needs to get to the gym and have two o three people just come at him and learn to hit a shot from the field in traffic. 3-for-11 is pathetic for him. 8 points? I can score 8 points. I am not at Chris Bosh’s level. I’ve gone 3-for-11 in pickup games. Step it up, sir.
3. A lack of cohesion on the court. This goes back to my first point: give the ball to one of the star players, and then stand around with your thumbs twiddling until they get iso and shoot a jumper. Crash the boards, hope you get a rebound, repeat. This is not how to run a 5 star basketball team. LeBron can run an offense in his sleep, Wade can create space in the blink of an eye, Bosh knows how to post up, so why didn’t they? Ilgauskas isn’t gonna get you a ring, Miami.
4. They have to have to have to play better defense. There were holes everywhere last night, it was like swiss cheese defense. KG got a double double, Rondo got 17 assists, and Allen hit every important 3 he needed. Do you need to double team sometimes? Yep. But the Celtics are similar to the Heat in that everyone is a playmaker. They can all make something happen. Draw a foul, give a foul, stop giving out easy buckets and an 8 point margin of victory will slowly shrink down to a 6 point, 4 point, no point margin and then you’re in the black.
5. Erik Spoelstra is in a bad way here. I feel for him, honestly. He has three of the biggest names in basketball and he has to force them into working together in a way that none of them are accustomed to. That’s not an easy thing, and the lofty goals that people have for the Heat (Jeff Van Gundy, cough cough) probably aren’t helping him much either. He needs to sit down, find a gameplan that is HIS, and make it work.
The Heat aren’t a bad team by any means, and the sheer amount of talent will often overcome many of these problems. In a league where you’re not playing for a playoff spot, though, how much do these wins and losses really mean, though? We’re going to see them in the playoffs, there’s no question about that. For their sake, though, I hope they can work through these issues by then, because there’s another familiar team we’ll see in the playoffs, and they just beat the Heat.
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What is Tom Brady’s issue?
This football game is a joke right now. Tom Brady has been all over the place with the ball, and not in a good way. Thank goodness the Chargers are equally shitty or I would actually be concerned that the Pats might lose.
As I typed this, Tom Brady decided to show up and nailed Branch with a sweet 24 yard pass over the middle. Good for him, maybe Bellichik told him that Brian Hoyer is always ready to throw incompletions wherever they need to be.
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Brett Favre reportedly NOT returning to the Vikings
Reports are trickling in the Brett Favre has decided not to return to the Minnesota Vikings. He informed the coaches last nights and has sent players on the team text messages informing them today, reportedly.
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